Deutsche Bank analyst Brian Modoff on Jan. 12 was among the latest to lower his estimate for 2009 handset volumes to negative 10%, down from negative 6.4%, based on low demand in Europe and the Americas. Modoff projected slowing growth in emerging markets. Asia and Africa are projected to be down in the low single digits. China and India are expected to be flat.
According to IMS Research, 2008 was a “breakout year” for GPS in mobile phones. In 2009, GPS chips are expected to turn up in cameras, laptops, ultra-mobile personal computers, even sporting equipment to drive 25% year-on-year growth.
Citing “extremely limited visibility” ahead, Nokia again cut its forecast for annual growth this year from negative 5% to negative 10%. Last year, overall, device shipments were down 9% over the prior year.
Nokia did record a sequential uptick in smartphone sales — the industry’s bright spot — to 48 million industrywide in fourth quarter from 44.2 million in the third quarter, but its own share of that market declined to 15.1 million units from 15.5 million, sequentially. With Apple also recording a sharp downturn in iPhone sales for the quarter — it sold 4.4 million iPhone 3Gs, down from 6.9 million the prior quarter — that might reflect market share growth by Research In Motion Ltd., according to Maynard Um, analyst at UBS.
